# Publications
The following list contains contributions which apply the microWELT or the microDEMS model. MicroWELT is a portable continuous-time interacting population model based on readily available data for many countries. Its sister model, microDEMS, is a refined Austrian version built on the same platform but based on detailed longitudinal administrative records.
## Journal Publications
- Horvath, T., M. Spielauer, P. Warum (2025) **Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labor Force - A Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria** Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2025 Vol 23 [PDF](https://austriaca.at/0xc1aa5572_0x00402fe8)
- Böheim René, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2023) **The Impact of Health and Education on Labour Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations** - Population Research and Policy Review, 2023, 42, (3), [LINK](https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09781-3)
- Horvath Thomas, Thomas Leoni, Peter Reschenhofer, Martin Spielauer (2023) **Socio-economic Inequality and Healthcare Costs Over the Life Course – A Dynamic Microsimulation Approach** - Public Health, (219), pp.124-130, [LINK](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2023.04.001)
- Spielauer Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto, Concepció Patxot, Tanja Istenič (2023) **The Effect of Educational Expansion and Family Change on the Sustainability of Public and Private Transfers** - Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2023, 25, [LINK](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2023.100455)
- Spielauer Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto, Concepció Patxot, Tanja Istenič (2022) **Measuring the Lifecycle Impact of Welfare State Policies in the Face of Ageing.** Economic Analysis and Policy, 2022, 75, S.1-25, [LINK](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.05.002)
- Fink, Horvath, Spielauer (2020) microDEMS – **Ein dynamisches Mikrosimulationsmodell für Österreich. Illustration am Beispiel der Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung bis 2040** (microDEMS – A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Austria. Illustration Using the Example of the Development of Labour Force Participation Until 2040) Monatsberichte 2020, 93(1), S.51-61 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=62442&mime_type=application/pdf)
## Monographs
- Stefan Angel, Benjamin Bittschi, Thomas Horvath, Marion Kogler, Helmut Mahringer (2023) **Aktivierbare Arbeitsmarktpotenziale und "Stille Reserven" in Österreich** (Activatable Labour Market Potentials and "Hidden Unemployment" in Austria) - WIFO Studien, Oktober 2023, 90 Seiten - Auftraggeber: Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=70889&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Thomas Horvath, Walter Hyll, Helmut Mahringer, Hedwig Lutz, Martin Spielauer (2022) **Ältere am Arbeitsmarkt: Eine Vorausschau bis 2040 als Grundlage für wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen** - WIFO Study [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=69701&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Thomas Horvath, Serguei Kaniovski, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer, Thomas Url (2021) **The Impact of Education and Health on Labour Force Participation and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing** - Bertelsmann Foundation [PDF](https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/user_upload/Studie_MT_The_Impact_of_Education_and_Health_on_Labour_Force_Participation_and_the_Macroeconomic_.pdf)
- Horvath, T., Kaniovski, S., Leoni, T., Spielauer, M., Url, T., Lizarazo López, M. & Petersen, T. (2021) **Effekte von Bildung und Gesundheit auf Erwerbsbeteiligung und Gesamtwirtschaft im demographischen Wandel**, Apr 2021, 22 p. Fokuspapier, Bertelsmann Foundation [PDF](https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/user_upload/Studie_MT_Effekte_von_Bildung_und_Gesundheit_auf_Erwerbsbeteiligung_und_Gesamtwirtschaft_im__demografischen_Wandel_2021.pdf)
- Leoni, Thomas, Martin Spielauer, Peter Reschenhofer (2020) **Soziale Unterschiede, Lebenserwartung und Gesundheitsausgaben im Lebensverlauf** (Social Differences, Life Expectancy And Health Expenditures Over The Life Course) Study commissioned by the Main Association of Austrian Social Insurance Institutions [PDF](https://www.sozialversicherung.at/cdscontent/load?contentid=10008.737338&version=1594215146)
## Working Papers
- Famira-Mühlberger U, T Horvath, T Leoni, M Spielauer, P Warum (2025) **How do rising care needs impact the formal and informal care sectors and existing inequalities? Comparing Austria and Spain** - WIFO Working Paper 700/2025, [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-7522/wp_2025_700.pdf)
- Warum P, F Culotta, U Famira-Mühlberger, T Horvath, T Leoni, M Spielauer (2025) **Challenges in long-term care: Modelling and quantifying future care needs, arrangements and gaps
in ageing, low-fertility societies. A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy** - WIFO Working Paper 698/2025, [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-1806/wp_2025_698.pdf)
- Warum P, U Famira Mühlberger, T Horvath, T Leoni, P Reschenhofer, M Spielauer (2025) **Comparative Modeling of Long-Term Care in Hours - Parameter Estimation for microWELT** - WIFO Working Paper 639/2025 [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-5916/wp_2025_693.pdf)
- Famira-Mühlberger, Ulrike & Thomas Leoni (2024) **How Vulnerable are Care Systems to Future Changes in Demand and Supply? Providing a Framework to Compare Austria, Spain, UK and Canada** - WIFO Working Paper 677 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-5217/wp_2024_677.pdf)
- Böheim René, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2024) **The Power of Inclusive Labor Force Participation for Mitigating Population Aging: Closing Gaps at the Intersection Between Race/Ethnicity and Gender in the United States** - NBER Working Paper No. 32590 [PDF](http://www.nber.org/papers/w32590)
- Horvath Thomas, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer, Peter Reschenhofer (2024) **The Impact of Ageing, Inequality and the Evolution of Morbidity on Future Health Expenditure** - Wifo Working Paper 679 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-6219/wp_2024_679.pdf)
- Horvath, Thomas, Martin Spielauer, Philipp Warum (2024) **Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria**. WIFO Working Papers, 2024, (674) [PDF](https://wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=71484&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Bittschi, Benjamin, Thomas Horvath, Helmut Mahringer, Christine Mayrhuber, Martin Spielauer, Philipp Warum (2024) **Assessing the Labour Supply Effect of Harmonising Regular Retirement Age in Austria**. WIFO Working Papers, 2024, (673) [PDF](https://wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=71474&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Böheim René , Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2021) **The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies. Projections for the United States and Germany from a Dynamic Microsimulation.** NBER Working Papers, 2021, (29534), [HTML](https://www.nber.org/papers/w29534) [PDF](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29534/w29534.pdf)
- Amann Johannes, René Böheim, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2021) **The microWELT-US Microsimulation Model for Projections of the US Labour Force Participation Accounting for Education and Health** - Technical Report / Monograph. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Commissioned by the US National Bureau of Economic Research [PDF](https://wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=67943&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Horvath, Thomas, Martin Spielauer, Marian Fink (2020) **Microsimulation Projection of the Educational Integration and Labour Force Participation of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants** - WIFO Working Paper 615/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66551&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink (2020) **Das dynamische Mikrosimulationsmodell microDEMS zur Analyse der ökonomischen Integration von Immigrantinnen und Immigranten in Österreich** - WIFO Working Paper 607/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66322&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Huber, Pater & Martin Spielauer (2020) **Return and Onward Migration and Labour Market Entry: Empirical Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria** - WIFO Working Paper 616/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66554&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink (2020) **microWELT - A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Study of Welfare Transfer Flows in Ageing Societies from a Comparative Welfare State Perspective.** WIFO Working Paper 609/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66390&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Walter Hyll, Marian Fink (2020) **microWELT: Socio-Demographic Parameters and Projections for Austria, Spain, Finland, and the UK** WIFO Working Paper 6011/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66473&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto, Ció Patxot and Tanja Istenič (2020) **microWELT - Microsimulation Projection of Indicators of the Economic Effects of Population Ageing Based on Disaggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)** WIFO Working Paper 6012/2020 [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66484&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto, Ció Patxot and Tanja Istenič (2020) **microWELT - Sustainability Indicators: The role of welfare state regimes** National Transfer Accounts Network Working Paper 20-02 [PDF](https://www.ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/NTAWP%2020-02.pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto Nieves, Concepció Patxot, Tanja Istenič (2020) **microWELT: Microsimulation Projection of Full Generational Accounts for Austria and Spain WIFO Working Paper 618/2020** [PDF](https://www.wifo.ac.at/jart/prj3/wifo/resources/person_dokument/person_dokument.jart?publikationsid=66611&mime_type=application/pdf)
- Spielauer, Martin, Thomas Horvath, Marian Fink, Gemma Abio, Guadalupe Souto, Ció Patxot and Tanja Istenič (2020) **microWELT - Microsimulation Projection of Full Generational Accounts from a comparative welfare state perspective: Results for Spain, Austria, Finland, and the UK** National Transfer Accounts Network Working Paper 20-03 [PDF](https://www.ntaccounts.org/doc/repository/NTAWP%2020-03.pdf)