# JPI MYBL - Caring Over the Lifecycle: the Roles of Families and Welfare States Today and Into the Future (WellCARE)
WellCARE aims to investigate how the ‘care economy’ affects intra- and inter-generational redistribution through the lifecycle, in the context of ageing societies. By ‘care economy‘ we refer to the major kinds of caring services provided in our societies. We will focus on the two largest types of caring – for children including education, and for those living with disabilities, especially the elderly. In turn, these services – the essence of fulfilling caring responsibilities – are considered in three main categories: those provided in-cash or in-kind by publicly funded organizations (government), those purchased privately (market), and those provided in-kind by close family members (family).
- **Organizations:** Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO); University of Barcelona, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, University of Ottawa, University of Essex
- **Funding:** This 2021-2025 project is funded by the EC Framework Programme Joint Program Initiative "More Years Better Lives". The Austrian part of the project is funded by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Research.
## Project Outputs
The following collection of project outputs is limited to outputs related to the microWELT model and related research led by WIFO. The WellCARE project is coordinated by the University of Barcelona, which also maintains the [WellCARE project website](https://www.ub.edu/wellcare/).
### Publications
- Spielauer M, P Warum, T Horvath (2025)- **MicroWELT 2.0 LTC Model Description** - The model introduces a new and refined x-compatible re-implementation of MicroWELT’s core socio-demographic modules combined with a new LTC module. Most of the original modules have been reimplemented and refined from scratch. A technical discription including code is available in the Documentation section of this website. A technical report is forthcoming.
- Famira-Mühlberger U, T Leoni (2024) **How Vulnerable are Care Systems to Future Changes in Demand and Supply? Providing a Framework to Compare Austria, Spain, UK and Canada** - This paper - in addition to its in-depth comparative analysis - informs model design and the specification of scenario support. - WIFO Working Paper 677 [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-5217/wp_2024_677.pdf)
- Warum P, U Famira Mühlberger, T Horvath, T Leoni, P Reschenhofer, M Spielauer (2025) **Comparative Modeling of Long-Term Care in Hours - Parameter Estimation for microWELT** This paper describes the novel method for the comparative estimation of long-term care
needs, care arrangements and care gaps applied in microWELT. - WIFO Working Paper 639/2025 [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-5916/wp_2025_693.pdf)
- Warum P, F Culotta, U Famira-Mühlberger, T Horvath, T Leoni, M Spielauer (2025) **Challenges in long-term care: Modelling and quantifying future care needs, arrangements and gaps
in ageing, low-fertility societies. A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy** - This contribution puts our LTC approach into the context of microsimulation literature and existing models and demonstrates its power through projections for two countries at very different stages of population ageing, Austria and Italy. - WIFO Working Paper 698/2025, [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-1806/wp_2025_698.pdf)
- Famira-Mühlberger U, T Horvath, T Leoni, M Spielauer, P Warum (2025) **How do rising care needs impact the formal and informal care sectors and existing inequalities? Comparing Austria and Spain** - This paper examines the long-term care (LTC) systems of Austria and Spain, projecting future care needs and evaluating the interaction between rising care demands and institutional settings. In the context of microWELT, it demonstrates the modelling approach in comparative scenario analysis. - WIFO Working Paper 700/2025, [[PDF]](https://www.wifo.ac.at/wp-content/uploads/upload-7522/wp_2025_700.pdf)
- Famira-Mühlberger U, T Horvath, T Leoni, M Spielauer, P Warum (2025) **Projection of Long-Term Care Needs and Care Allowances in Austria** - This paper refines the microWELT model for Austria, focusing on the Austrian Care Allowance System and related public costs. Unlike the comparative model, we use administrative data and show how microsimulation can improve available macro projections for Austria. The results also support the validation of the comparative model for Austria. - WIFO Working Paper, forthcoming
### MicroWELT simulation software and parameterisation
MicroWELT 2.0 CARE is open source. Its code is documented in the documentation section of this website, and a complete download will be made available when the project is closed. The model is implemented in [Modgen](https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/microsimulation/modgen/modgen) and is x-compatible with its successor, the new open-source language [openM++](https://github.com/openmpp/openmpp.github.io/wiki). The model has been developed in a Windows environment. Like all Modgen applications, it runs on a standard Windows PC and has a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI). OpenM++ is cross-platform, supporting Windows, Linux or MacOS.
All model parameters and the initial population are based on harmonised micro-data sets and data sources (such as Eurostat projections) available across the EU. Analysis scripts, which make the parameterisation fully reproducible, are available for download from this website.
### MicroWELT LTC Module
The centrepiece of MicroWELT 2.0 CARE is the LTC module, which projects the need for care in hours and - based on current patterns and scenario-based care restrictions - the care mix and possible gaps in care.
### Preliminary simulation results
Some preliminary comparative results for a number of scenarios are available as Excel workbooks. MicroWELT provides scenario support for a number of alternative assumptions along different dimensions. These include:
- Alternative scenarios of the evolution of needs equivalent to modelling compression or expansion of morbidity and convergence scenarios
- Demographic scenarios such as alternative mortality projections or concerning partnership formation and dissolution
- Scenarios that change the supply of nursing homes, formal care, and informal care provided by others than a partner.
The projections focus on hours of care needs and how they are met in the future identifying potential care gaps.
- [Preliminary Results of 13 LTC Scenarios - Austria](materials/Figures-AT.xlsx)
- [Preliminary Results of 13 LTC Scenarios - Spain](materials/Figures-ES.xlsx)
- [Preliminary Results of 13 LTC Scenarios - Italy](materials/Figures-IT.xlsx)
