MicroWELT 3.0 SUST
MicroWELT 3.0 SUST - is a model built within the Horizon Europe SustainWELL project. It builds on the MicroWELT simulation platform, extending its scope to the modeling of longitudinal activity careers, earnings, social insurance, and tax-benefit calculation and accounting.
Overview
The model inherits most features from existing MicroWELT applications. MicroWELT is a modular, open-source modelling platform developed for the comparative study of interactions between population ageing, socio-demographic change, and welfare state regimes. MicroWELT follows a continuous-time, interacting population framework and supports the alignment of aggregate results with official population projections.The model is X-compatible, meaning it can compile source code using two programming technologies: Modgen and the new open-source environment openM++.
MicroWELT simulates three types of actors (agents): observations, persons, and an observer. ‘Observations’ correspond to records in a starting population file and are used to generate the simulated population through sampling and cloning. Observations are linked to nuclear families. They are temporary actors and are destroyed once the simulated population is created. Persons are the main units of the simulation. The single observer actor is used for processes that require aggregated information, such as model alignment.
In a nutshell, the model consists of the following components and modeled behaviors, most of which corresponding to various modules which include their own detailed documentation.
Previousely existing modules - inherited from microWELT 2.0 LTC:
The simulation engine, which generates all actors known at the start of the simulation. Most importantly, it generates the initial population from a starting population microdata file.
Education, which takes into account the intergenerational transmission of education and supports trend scenarios as well as scenarios in which changes are driven by the intergenerational transmission of education.
Demography: For mortality and fertility, microWELT reproduces Eurostat’s population projections at the aggregate level, but adds detail at the individual level by taking into account variations in first birth cohort rates and resulting childlessness, progression to second births and longevity by education. Net migration is modelled on the basis of Eurostat projections by age and sex, but with the aim of keeping families together.
Partnerships are modelled from the female perspective, taking into account age, presence and age of children in the family and education. Partners are matched by assortative mating, based on distributions of age differences and education.
LTC needs, arrangements and gaps are modelled, taking into account age, gender and education, as well as the availability of a spouse and the number of children.
Model output is produced through a comprehensive set of output tables.
New modules:
Health and health status transitions used as explanatory variable in various processes, including employment, disability pensions, and mortality.
School enrolment as base of modelling the private and public consumption of education and related education benefits and family transfers.
Longitudinal activity careers distinguishing the states never active, employed, enemployed, family leave, out of labor force, retired. The model also distinguishes between full-time and part-time employment.
Earnings and earnings-replacements (4 modules), i.e. social insurance benefits connected to individual work careers such as unemployment benefits, maternity and parental leave benefits, amd pensions.
Tax-Benefit calculation (8 modules), consistent with Euromod - based on parameters derived from a synthetic tax-benefit database produced by the Euromod Hypothetical Household (HHoT) tool covering the heterogeneity of the population alongside various dimensions. The model distinguishes income taxes, social insurance contributions, and benefits grouped to family benefits, education benefits, old-age benefits, and social benefits according the National Transfer Accounting (NTA) logic.
Benefits not covered by the Euromod HHoT tool such as health benefits, housing benefits, and education grants.
Consumption distinguishing both private and public consumtion of education, health, long-term care, and all other consumtion modeled on the family and the individual level.
Longitudinal accounting of transfers including family transfers.
Childcare provided by parents (hours) and childcare arrangements.
Additional comprehensive model output is produced through an extensive set of output tables, which cover public and private transfer flows and support the comparative analysis of the operation of welfare states.