NBER - Projections of Age-Specific US Labor Force Participation Based on a Dynamic Microsimulation Model Accounting for Education and Health

Thomas Leoni, Thomas Horvath, Martin Spielauer, Johannes Amann, René Böheim,

The project developed a dynamic microsimulation model for the US to project age-specific labor force participation while accounting for population changes in education and health. The model produces projections that account for changes in cohorts’ educational attainments and the dynamic effects of education on health and employment. A focus is on the projection of the labor market participation of persons with health limitations in various policy settings. The analysis is embedded in an internationally comparative framework. The project adapts the multi-country comparative microsimulation model microWELT for the US context. The creation of this model, combined with the analysis of participation behavior of different socio-demographic groups and of the impact of different policies for the inclusion of persons with health impairments, allows to project labor force participation in the US and to construct comparative what-if scenarios.

Publications

  • Böheim René, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2023) The Impact of Health and Education on Labour Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations - Population Research and Policy Review, 2023, 42, (3), [LINK]

  • Amann Johannes, René Böheim, Thomas Horvath, Thomas Leoni, Martin Spielauer (2021) The microWELT-US Microsimulation Model for Projections of the US Labour Force Participation Accounting for Education and Health - Technical Report / Monograph. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Commissioned by the US National Bureau of Economic Research [PDF]


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  • Organization Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria

  • Funding: This 2020-2021 project is funded by the US Social Security Administration, the project being commissioned by the US National Bureau of Economic Research NBER